Forecasting the Aftermath of a Ruling on China’s Nine-Dash Line

Foreign Policy Magazine

April 20, 2016

Forecasting the Aftermath of a Ruling on China’s Nine-Dash Line

The arbitration tribunal of five impartial experts that has been considering the Philippines suit against China under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will soon hand down its final decision. Although the tribunal will not decide territorial sovereignty questions or set maritime boundaries, it may well determine, among many other issues, whether there is a legal basis for China’s notorious “Nine-Dash Line” that ambiguously claims over 85 percent of the South China Sea and whether any of the islands in dispute are entitled to a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone. If, as it promises, Beijing rejects the outcome, it will harm the UNCLOS system that Beijing, which has ratified